Mark Dantonio has been absolutely money in this situation of being an under dog. Michigan State is 12-2 ATS as a dog with 9 outright upsets including two last year on the road against Michigan and Ohio State. He's got plenty of time to prepare for this game, and I see no reason why this defense won't be strong once again. They have 6 returning starters including Malik McDowell up front to help stop the run. The linebacking corps is great, and they get Ed Davis returning for his 6th year of eligibility granted by the NCAA. Shit I couldn't even get 4 years in division 2.
The key for me is Michigan State stopping the run, and knowing what we know about Michigan State I can confidently say they will be good against the run with all the talent they have coming in along with the fact that they have an extra week to prepare. Notre Dame was held under 200 yards rushing 7 times last year and averaged 29 points per game as opposed to over 40 ppg when they rushed for more than 200 yards. To open this season they played Texas and Nevada and ran over 200 yards on both of them so the idea is that this offense is going to be great again, but in comes Michigan State with other plans.
Notre Dame actually did not play well last week despite covering the spread. It was a 0-0 game after 1 quarter and then Nevada's special teams gave up a long punt return, and they had a safety and before you knew it the score was 25-0 at the half. Meanwhile Michigan State struggled against Furman in week 1. I seem to remember them struggling last year against Western Michigan to open the season before beating Oregon in their next game.
The other thing to consider here is the fact that Notre Dame actually returns just 9 starters compared to Michigan State's 10, and they have 10 more letterman than does Notre Dame. Notre DAme also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Big Ten and Brian Kelly really does not have a lot to go by for this game. I mean Michigan State has a new QB and they really did not show much against Furman. Meanwhile, Notre Dame showed quite a bit of their weaknesses in the game against Texas. If Michigan State does not turn the ball over they cover this game.
